19th International CODATA Conference
Category: Knowledge Discovery

The technology of geological environment stability assessment with disposal of radioactive waste in geological formations

E.N. Kamnev, V.N. Morozov, V.N. Tatarinov, U. Ziegenhagen

The safety disposal of  high-level radioactive wastes (HLRW) depends on the natural isolation properties of the geological medium and the stability of its natural factors which determine the persistence of these properties with time. Selecting most stable geologic blocks in the territory of Russia to dispose of HLRW includes a number of problems, therefore our research aims at solving the following problems: selecting most suitable long-term crusts areas on the basis of assessment (rating) of geological medium (its properties, conditions and processes) with account for geodynamic factors of the area; prediction of stability and resistance of the geological medium of individual crusts areas, risk assessment of  destabilization of the medium for the whole term of  HLRW occurrence in it; prediction of the natural isolation properties of  the rock massif  during construction and exploitation of HLRW repositories under the effects of geotechnical processes.

At the first stage of the research the major problem is the one of defining marginal parameters (criteria) to assign one or another site to the above-mentioned groups. When materials of various kinds, which frequently are not expressed numerically, are analyzed an expert opinion may be applied to make decision on regional scale.

Within the framework of performance of project ISTC №2764 development of information technology of geological environment stability assessment with disposal of radioactive waste in geological formations is started. A basis is creation of detailed databases on 3 areas. The first HLRW repositories in the territory of the Russian Federation are planned to be constructed in the regions of Krasnoyarsk, Novaya Zemlya and the Far East. These areas are the objects of application of proposed expert system. The areas are named below as the tested areas.

The project includes three tasks:

Task 1. Collecting data on tectonic, hydrological, seismological and geodynamic environment of the tested areas; constructing databases of the tested areas and a knowledge base on geological environment stability characteristics; elaborating prognostic functions and major criteria of geological environment stability assessment.

Task 2. Elaborating algorithms of computer modeling of geodynamic evolution of the tested earth crust areas. Developing the expert system tools based on modern mathematical methods of analysis of a complex system in the case of insufficient and indefinite information (artificial intelligence, vague logic etc.).

Task 3. Estimating geological environment suitability of the regions of planning location of long-term repositories of HLRW; predicting the geoecological risk of HLRW repositories location in these areas.