19^th International CODATA Conference
Category: Scientific Informatics Challenges in EurAsia

The Scenario Analysis Platform as a Tool for Decision-Makers

Michael ZGUROVSKY
Rector of the National Technical University of Ukraine "Kiev Polytechnic Institute", Kiev, Ukraine

A new approach to construction of scenarios of future events in different spheres of human activity by using the methodology of qualitative and system analysis is considered. The most efficient methods of qualitative analysis are suggested and recommendations on their practical applications are given. The proposed approach is used for scenario construction of innovative development of large enterprises, separate branches of industry and formation of the society policy.

The above-mentioned process is formed with the help of more universal methodology named scenario analysis which determines the sequence of their application, their interconnection and in general forms the foresight process.

The methods are based on the so-called experts conclusions in specific field of knowledge. Thus, the main output data in these methods is experts evaluation of this or that variable. In this respect the indicated methods belong to the group of qualitative analysis methods irrespective of usage of mathematical models or great volume of computations for processing separate segments of information. It should be noted that in solving practical problems of foresight the estimates are received, as a rule, by Internet in on-line mode.

The system of decision-making is realized as a complex of multi-purpose cross-platform network applications and consists of several functional levels forming hierarchical servers structure providing reception, processing and analysis information in the system.

Mathematical processing of expert data is carried out at higher community level as compared to problems of any particular expert examination, which allows the Delphi method procedure to work in any metric space irrespective of what type of data are presented in this space.

The peculiar feature of Delphi method presented in this development is high flexibility of individual and group analysis algorithms of expert information achieved by independent many-dimensional processing of expert data in regard of various properties of the object being examined.

In addition, the apparatus of fuzzy sets worked out at the generalized level is used in this project. It allows to embrace a wide class of expert reviews with fuzzy data, which ensures considerable flexibility of all methods of fuzzy information processing.